“I have determined that additional sanctions are warranted, particularly in light of the deceptive practices of the Central Bank of Iran and other Iranian banks to conceal transactions of sanctioned parties, the deficiencies in Iran’s anti-money laundering regime and the weaknesses in its implementation, and the continuing and unacceptable risk posed to the international financial system by Iran’s activities.” 

Wow, that’s a mouth full. 

The Obama administration is tightening a viselike grip on the Iranian economy with the expressed intent to collapse its economy by strangling the rial and denying it access to capital. Seemingly this current policy is driven by the presumption that Iran will buckle under internal pressures before a military option is deemed necessary. The thinking is, if the Iranian people are starved and made to feel isolated long enough, they’ll blame their plight on Ahmadinejad and company, inspiring a ground swell of revolt and then force the Iranian leadership to cave and cooperate. In our estimation, this plan would sound reasonable only to those born yesterday.

However, for anyone whose had more than a minute or two to appreciate the ugly history between the United States and Iran, we see the Iranians galvanizing over time and seeing the West as the perpetrator of their misery. We think the likelihood of the Iranians rolling over to revolting en masse for years of total chaos, so the West can operate freely in their country controlling what they can and can’t do is rather remote. The brutish conditions the Palestinians continue to endure in Gaza and the occupied territories is more than enough evidence to suggest people don’t allow themselves to be punked in that fashion. 

What is more probable, is the Iranians will prep for the worst and strike back at the first opportunity they get to avenge their losses. And there will be plenty of those opportunities since the United States has far reaching interest. The further one’s reach, the more one has to defend. Defense cost money. The US don’t have any money. 

Unless the CIA has gathered some serious intelligence to correctly gage the mood of the people and the strength of the Iranian government’s opposition, we’d say the United States could be setting a trap for themselves. The very fact that the US had to announce this latest round of sanctions against the Iranians indicates everybody that says they’re onboard publicly are doing what they have to do behind closed doors. 

Additionally, we’re not sure if the US has carefully considered the “what’s in it for me” angle when commencing to drag the world into these “coalitions to screw somebody” operations. Joining the sanctions bandwagon could be more costly for some than others. While few would publicly support Iran having a nuclear weapon, it may not necessarily be their top priority to stop them. 

When nations are strong-armed, coerced or bribed into isolating a nation state at the behest of the US/Israel, they inevitably have to explain to their people why the security of Israel is worth the loss of business, trade and economic impact to their counties. That can be a tough sell these days. 

In the log run, we think the US should be pushing for a nuclear-free middle east policy, or prepare itself for another ten years of that “if you see something, say something crap” Click here for the podcast: Screwing Iran